美国农业部提高2017-18年全球棉花产量预测

USDA raises 2017-18 global cotton production forecast

For 2017-18 cotton marketing season, the US department of agriculture (USDA), in its June forecast, has upwardly revised global production from 113.2 million bales to 114.7 million bales, or about 1.3 per cent. In combination with some slight revisions in the current and previous crop years, production is forecast to grow 8.2 per cent over the previous year.

The projected increase in cotton output is due to price-driven area increases for most major cotton producers, and significant improvements in the outlook for a few countries, namely Pakistan, China, and Mexico, the USDA said in its monthly report ‘Cotton: World Markets and Trends’.

“Despite this improving outlook, however, global production remains below the levels seen before the extremely poor-yielding 2015-16 crops. Recovery in production has varied by region, but it is notable that almost alone among major cotton-producing regions, the African Franc Zone is forecast to yield its largest crop ever obtained, at about 5.2 million bales,” the report said.

The forecasts show an upward revision for consumption growth from 2.2 per cent last month to 2.6 per cent. Forecasts for China, India, and Pakistan were all raised appreciably.

Furthermore, global trade forecasts are lowered, driven by lower import demand in producer countries, especially Pakistan.

The 2017-18 US season-average farm price forecast is unchanged at 64 cents per pound. For 2016-17, the US season-average farm price forecast is reduced half a cent to 68.5 cents per pound. (RKS)

译文如下：

美国农业部提高2017-18年全球棉花产量预测

据美国农业部6月份报告称，2017-18年度全球棉花产量从1.132亿包修正至1.147亿包，上涨约1.3%。结合当前赛季棉花作物的产量情况，棉花产量预计较上年同比增长8.2%。

美国农业部在其月度报告中关于世界市场和贸易趋势指出，全球棉花产量预计将增加，主要是由于大多数棉花生产国的价格上涨，以及巴基斯坦、中国和墨西哥等少数几个国家的前景出现了显著改善。

然而，尽管前景有所改善，但全球产量仍低于2015-16年的水平。该报告称，产量的恢复情况各不相同，但值得注意的是，在主要的棉花生产区，预计非洲法郎区产量将是有史以来最大的，约为520万包。

预测显示，上月棉花消费产量从2.2%向上修正至2.6%。中国、印度和巴基斯坦的棉花消费量预计都明显提高。

此外，由于生产国特别是巴基斯坦的进口需求下降，全球贸易预期有所下降。

2017-18年，美国棉花的平均价格预测不变，为每磅64美分。2016-2017年，美国的棉花平均价格预测下调了0.5美分至每磅68.5美分。

(编译：杨朝霞)