坚挺的卢比与疲软的贸易将影响纺织品出口企业

Strong rupee & weak trade to affect textile exporters

Textile and apparel exporters' earnings and EBITDA margins will be impacted in the near term due to the Indian rupee's 5 per cent appreciation against the dollar in 2017 year to date and weak apparel imports from markets such as US and UK, says a recent report. The on-going strength of the INR vs USD constrains the price competitiveness of textile exporters.

Apparel exporters' value-added garments mix, partially hedged forex exposure, debt-light structure and reasonable liquidity support the overall business and financial risk profile, according to India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). Furthermore strong domestic foothold of large spinners and weavers will mitigate any major impact on their business and credit risk profile.

Unabated strengthening of INR vis a vis USD in the current calendar year has added to the challenges of the textiles industry. Ind-Ra had highlighted in the report ‘Stable Input Prices, Fiscal Incentives to Support Textile and Cotton in FY18’the muted performance in 3QFY17 due to high cotton prices (17 per cent higher prices yoy), demonetisation and slow global trade.

More than 70 per cent of Indian textile and apparel exports are dollar denominated. Strong INR vs USD is likely to have an adverse impact on the export trade volumes and earnings, since fresh export orders will have reduced competitiveness. Ason date, INR has strengthened by more than 5 per cent in 2017, while there has been negligible or a favourable movement of 1 per cent, 0.5 per cent and -1 per cent for major competing nations namely China, Bangladesh and Vietnam respectively.

译文如下：

坚挺的卢比与疲软的贸易将影响纺织品出口企业

由于2017年度印度卢比兑美元升值5%，以及美国和英国服装进口贸易疲弱，纺织品和服装出口商的收益和EBITDA利润率将会在短期内受到影响，最近的一份报告中说。印度卢比对美元的持续的升值限制纺织品出口企业的价格竞争力。

服装出口商的附加值服装组合，部分对冲外汇风险暴露，负债结构和合理的流动性支持整个业务和金融风险，根据印度评级和研究(Ind-Ra)。而且强劲的国内大型纺纱和织造厂将减轻对他们的业务和信贷风险产生的重大影响。

在当前年度印度卢比对美元有增无减的升值增加了纺织工业的挑战。Ind-Ra已在“稳定的投入价格，财政激励来支持2018财年纺织和棉花”的报告中强调了2017财年的温和表现。由于较高的棉花价格(价格同比上涨17%)，货币停止通用和全球贸易减缓。

超过70%的印度纺织品和服装出口以美元计价。坚挺的印度卢比对美元可能有不利于出口贸易额和收益，因为新的出口订单将减少竞争力。参考日期，2017年印度卢比升值超过5%，虽然是微不足道的，主要竞争国家即中国、孟加拉国和越南的幅度分别为1%，0.5%和-1%。