巴西棉花产量预计将增长10%至140万吨

It is forecast to increase by 10 per cent to 1.4 million tons in Brazil

In the Southern Hemisphere, primarily Brazil and Australia, cotton production is expected to rise by 21 per cent to 2.8 million tons, which could put pressure on prices through the end of 2016-17 to the start of the next season as both countries are also large exporters. Production in Brazil, the world’s fifth largest producer and largest in the Southern Hemisphere, is forecast to increase by 10 per cent to 1.4 million tons. Production in Australia could grow by 64 per cent to 1 million tons due to expanded plantings as farmers were encouraged by high prices and better water availability.

Meanwhile, world cotton consumption is likely to remain stable at 24.1 million tons. While prices for polyester, the main competing fibre, have risen in recent weeks, they still remain well below international cotton prices, making it unlikely that cotton mill use will expand this season unless polyester prices continue to rise. China’s consumption is expected to remain stable at 7.4 million tons, making it the largest consumer. However, mill use in India is projected to decline by 1 per cent to 5.2 million tons while mill use in Pakistan is likely to remain stable at 2.3 million tons. Ongoing uncertainty in Turkey and competition from lower-priced cotton yarn imports could lead to a 3 per cent decline in mill use to 1.45 million tons. However, cotton consumption is forecast to grow by 5 per cent to 1.3 million tons in Bangladesh and 13 per cent to 1.1 million tons in Vietnam.

In cotton trade, Bangladesh is forecast to increase its imports by 1 per cent to 1.4 million tons, making it the largest importer in 2016-17 and Vietnam’s imports are projected to rise by 19 per cent to just under 1.2 million tons. (RKS)

译文如下：

巴西棉花产量预计将增长10%至140万吨

南半球方面，巴西和澳大利亚的棉花总产量预计将上涨21%至280万吨。由于两国都是棉花出口大国，棉花增产将对本年度后期和下年度初期的棉花价格形成压力。巴西棉花产量预计将增长10%至140万吨，澳大利亚棉花产量预计将增长64%至100万吨。

与此同时，2016/17年度，全球棉花消费量预计保持稳定在2410万吨。虽然近几周化纤价格大幅上涨，但仍远低于棉花价格。因此，除非化纤价格持续上涨，否则棉花消费量增加的可能性不大。中国消费量预计稳定在740万吨，印度消费量预计下降1%至520万吨，原因是国内棉价坚挺，巴基斯坦消费量在2015/16年度下降9%之后预计稳定在230万吨，土耳其政局动荡和低价进口纱的冲击将使棉花消费减少3%至145万吨。不过，印度和土耳其消费量的减少可能被孟加拉国和越南消费量增加抵消，两国的棉花消费量预计为130万吨和110万吨，同比分别增长5%和13%。

本年度，孟加拉国棉花进口量预计增长1%至140万吨，越南进口量预计增长19%，接近120万吨。