印度棉花出口突破8百万包

India’s cotton exports are expected to rise this year (October 2011 – September 2012) to eight million bales of 170 kg each, compared to last season’s export of seven billion bales, the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) has said.

There are two major reasons for the likely rise in exports – the demand from China and cotton exports falling under the Open General Licence from the current season.

Industry insiders estimate that around 1.5 million bales of cotton have already been exported since October 1 and the exports are likely to increase as soon as prices decline owing to more arrival of crop in the market.

The estimate for cotton production during the current season has also been slightly revised upwards to 35.6 million bales from the earlier estimate of 35.5 million bales. The new estimate also factors in marginal crop damage in parts of Andhra Pradesh and Punjab.

Last season, India produced 32.5 million bales of cotton. The cotton production is estimated to be higher due to an increase in the area under cotton cultivation from 2.4 million hectares last year to 2.5 million hectares this year.

CAB also estimates the yield to be higher at 498.42 kg per hectare, as against the yield of 471.64 kg per hectare in 2010-11.

However, the consumption by small-scale industries and mills has been revised downwards to 21 million bales from last season’s consumption of 21.5 million bales, owing to their weak economic condition.

译文如下：

棉花咨询委员会（CAB）称，与上年度出口的7百万包相比，印度棉花出口本年度（2011/10-2012/9）有望突破8百万包，每包棉花重量为170公斤。
有两个主要原因带来了这次出口增长，首先是中国市场需求的增长，其次是本年度实行一般许可证后棉花出口的下跌。
业内人士估算到10月1日为止已经出口了150万包棉花，而且由于市场上棉花增加，棉价下跌，出口有望很快就能上升。就棉花产量而言，业内人士也估算由早期的3550万包上升到了3560万包。这次的估算也考虑到了如安德拉邦和旁遮普地区的庄稼损害。
上年度，印度的棉花产量是3250万包。由于本年度棉花种植面积由去年的240万公顷上涨到了250万公顷，棉花产量预计也会更高。棉花咨询委员会预计产量也会由2010-11年度的每公顷471.64公斤上升到每公顷498.42公斤。但是，由于经济环境不好，中小企业的棉花消费量由上年度的2150万包下降到了2100万包。