Focus: Weak buying interest weighs on Asia’s base oil prices

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s base oil market is expected to see weak buying interest for a few more weeks in the wake of volatile oil prices and the uncertain global economic outlook, market sources said on Thursday.
Traders and finished lubricant makers said they are delaying or minimising their purchases for cargoes loading at the end of August and in early September as they prefer to wait for a clearer price direction from the crude oil market.
Buyers usually build up their inventories in autumn, which is the peak season for lubricant production
Singapore ex-tank prices for SN150 fell by $10/tonne (€6.90/tonne) at the high end of the range to $1,390-1,440/tonne in the week to 16 August, according to data from ICIS.
The prices were dragged down by increased Chinese supply and weak demand.
“This is not a good time to buy cargoes. Crude prices are so volatile and there is so much bad news on the economic front,’’ said an Indian buyer.
China’s base oil demand is also uncertain, even though the high production season for lubricants is expected to start next month.
The slowdown in the Chinese economy following the government’s credit tightening measures is expected to continue to dampen lubricant demand, Chinese end-users said.
They added that their customers also prefer to keep low inventories because of the crude price fluctuations.
China’s base oil import demand has fallen since May. Buyers bought around 165,750 tonnes in June, down by more than 20% from the previous month.
However, demand in India is expected to be healthy next month as buyers will likely prepare their inventories for the post-monsoon production season.
The consumption of transformer oil and lubricants usually improves when the southwest monsoon ends in the second half of September.
“Once crude prices are more stable, buyers will start buying again,’’ said an Indian trader.
Most sellers in Asia and the Middle East are reluctant to cut their prices for September following the recent rebound in crude prices.
Most said they preferred to take a wait-and-see stance ahead of the traditional peak demand season.
Prices are likely to be supported by the reduced supply from Taiwan, a refiner in northeast Asia said.
Formosa Petrochemical is expected to continue to suspend exports in September as its 520,000 tonne/year Group II base oil plant in Mailiao is scheduled to restart only in the second half of September.
译文如下：

新加坡（ICIS）——市场人士周四称，随着油价震荡以及全球经济不明朗，亚洲基础油市场预期仍会有数周的疲软走势。
贸易商以及成品润滑油制造商称他们正在延迟或缩减8月底9月初船货的购买，因为他们想等轻质原油市场给出一个更为明确的价格走向。
买家通常在秋季开始补仓，也是润滑油生产的旺季。
根据ICIS数据显示，新加坡SN150库提价由高端区间下跌10美元至8月16日当周的1,390-1,440美元/吨。中国市场供应上升而需求依然疲软，以致拉低新加坡SN150库提价。
一位来自印度的买家说：“现在不是购买船货的好时机。原油价格太过震荡，经济前景太糟糕了。”
中国市场的基础油需求也不明确，虽然润滑油高产量季节预计下个月将要展开。
中国市场终端用户称，政府信用紧缩政策带来的中国经济发展减缓会持续给润滑油需求带来压力。在原油震荡的背景下，他们的客户也倾向于保持低库存状态。
中国基础油进口需求从五月份开始已经下跌。6月份买家总购买量在165,750吨，比前一个月下跌超过20%。不过，印度市场的需求有望在下个月变得稳健，因为当地买家很有可能会为后季风季节开始存货。
9月下半月，西南季风离境后，变压器油和润滑油的消费量通常会上升。“一旦原油价格稳定下来，买家会再次开始入货。”印度贸易商说。
亚洲以及中东的大多数买家在最近油价反弹后都开始惜售并不愿降价。大多数人说他们宁愿在贸易需求旺季到来前采取观望态度。
一位东南亚的炼油商说台湾市场的供应缩减有可能对价格起到支撑作用。台塑集团在麦寮的52万吨/年II类基础油装置计划在9月下半月重启，预计台塑集团仍将延迟9月出口。