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本网编译:6月8日全球棉花日报

来源:中国绸都网 | 作者:陈文婷 | 时间:2009-06-10 17:34:17 | 订阅《东方纺织》周刊

Daily worldwide cotton market report

Last night in New York futures market, July 09 closed at 55.67 with a gain of 56 points the volume traded was 11779 contracts, the October 09 closed at 58.32 with a gain of 71 points and the volume traded was 301 contracts, while the December 09 closed at 60.24 with a gain of 67 points and the volume traded under December 09 cover was 7519. The cotlook A index declared settled at 61.55 with a decrease of 125 points today.

The spot rate of KCA remained firm and strong, the settlement declared at Rs. 3550/=, with no changes today. In the domestic market today 400 bales of Layyah sold at Rs. 3450/=, 200 bales of Jalal Pur sold at Rs. 3550/=, 200 bales of Lodhran sold at Rs. 3550/=, and 200 bales of Ali Pur sold at Rs. 3550/=.

“The China National Cotton Exchange (CNCE) announced has from this week started to offer 2003/2004 and 2004/2005 crop (including imported cotton) from the state reserves, alongside continuing allocations of current crop. At today’s auction, a total of 25,212 tonnes were made available, of which 18,012 tonnes were taken up. The averaged grade was 4.04, marking a decline on the average witnessed to date, attributable to the inclusion of old crop cotton. The weighted average price converted to Type 328 was 12,800 Yuan per tonne, slightly higher than on Friday. From May 22 to date, a total of 104,391 tonnes have been transacted.”

The USDA will release the monthly supply/demand report tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. With U.S. export commitments excluding the USDA target of 12.5 million bales by a million bales and shipments on pace to exceed the USDA estimate suggest that U.S. export projection may be increased 300-500 bales on Wednesday’s report for the 08/09 supply/demand sheet. An increase in U.S. exports would immediately translate to a reduction in U.S. ending stocks as of August 1, 2009 and 2010. There is a chance the USDA may increase World Consumption for 09/10 on the World Statistics due to the improvement in the textile sector of late in China.

U.S. cotton under loan totaled 499,734 bales down 1,725 bales for the week ending June 2. There were 199,265 bales under Form A and 484,081 bales under Form G.

According to local business daily “consumer credit dives again. Borrowing fell by $15.7 billion in April, far worse than views and the 6th drop in 7 months, as consumers pare debt, possibly limiting an economic recovery. March’s consumer credit decline was revised up to record $16.6 billion. In April, credit card and other revolving debt fell by $8.6 billion. Auto and other non-revolving credit sank $7.1 billion.”

A second article in the daily said that, “U.S. growth to turn positive soon. A gauge of future U.S. economic activity rose to a 32-week high of 113.5 for the week ended May 29 from 111.9 the prior week, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said. Its annualized growth rate jumped to a 46-week high of -7.1% from -9.3% the week before. The data reaffirm ECRI’s view that U.S. prospects are ‘rapidly reviving’ and annual growth will return this summer.”

Egyptian apparel exports to the US market are ignoring the recession, with a surge of 15% in US$ terms over the first quarter. This is mostly due to the duty-free programme benefiting local zones and recently expanded to upper Egypt. Thanks to these QIZs, the low-cost country became a leading supplier of denim pants to the US market.

Raw material costs of polyester producers fell in the past weeks in India, with staple fiber prices also declining as a result. Filament prices were mixed with POY prices being reduced while textured yarn prices were raised, thanks to stronger demand from weavers, our India Correspondent reports.

Polyester prices more sharply fell in the last seven days, reflecting a series of depressing factors in the Far East, including lower demand and raw material costs. Polyester consumption may however be stimulated by a larger price difference between cotton and PSF.

Prices were more evidently falling in the polyester chain on Monday, reflecting a new decline in demand for polyester fibers in China. New paraxylene and PTA capacities are also depressing the market while glycol is now sliding, on its turn. The polyester chain continues ignoring the sharp rise in crude oil prices.

Cotton prices last week fell in New York, mainly due to a rebound in the US$ which depressed commodity markets. Physical demand was also weaker on the international market with the cotton yarn trade slowing down in Asia. In addition, cotton prices could sharply decline in the next season, according to the ICAC. 
 

                                                                         6月8日全球棉花日报

 

       昨晚纽约棉花期货交易市场0709合约收于每磅55.67美分,上涨56点,成交量为11779首;1009合约收于58.32美分/磅,上涨71美分,成交量301首;1209合约上涨67点,收于60.24美分/磅,成交量为7519首。棉花展望A指数今日大跌125点,收于61.55美分/磅。

 

      卡拉奇棉花交易所(KCA)棉花现货价格依旧坚挺,平均售价在3550卢比,与昨日持平。印度国内市场今日Layyah售出400包棉花,价格在3450卢比;Jalal Pur售出200包棉花,价格约3550卢比;Lodhran的200包棉花售价为3550卢比;Ali Pur售出200包棉花,售价也为3550卢比。

 

      中国国家棉花交易所(CNCE)宣布,从本周开始将销售2003/2004和2004和2005年度的储备棉花,包括进口棉花,同时将继续拨款支持当前棉花生产。在今天的拍卖中,国家计划抛售棉花25212吨,实际成交18012吨。今日销售的旧棉花平均等级是4.04级,今日棉价止跌回升,折328级加权平均价格是每吨12800元,略高于上周五。自5月22日至今,共有104391吨棉花被交易。

 

      美国农业部6月9日上午8:30将发布月度供给/需求报告,除美国农业部的1250万包的预期销售,美国还承诺出口100万包,出货量有望超过美国农业部的估计,周三公布的08/09年度供应/需求报告表明美国棉花的出口预测可能增加300-500包。美国出口增加量将立即缩减美国的现货库存。增加美国的出口将立即翻译减少美国2009年8月1日和2010年的现货库存。这有可能促进世界棉花09/10年度的消费记录,主要是由于中国近期改善了纺织行业的艰难处境。


      美国贷款棉花总额为499734包,6月2日那一周为1725包。其中199265包来自A,484081包来自G.


      根据美国商业日报的评论,“信贷消费再次跳水。4月贷款金额下降157亿美元,糟糕的是7个月中的第六次下降,主要是由于消费者消减债务,这可能限制了经济的复苏。3月的信贷消费下降值被修订为166亿美元。4月份,信用卡和其他周转性性信贷下降了86亿美元,而自助贷款和非周转性贷款缩水71亿美元。”


      日报上的一篇文章那样说,“美国很快将进入稳定增长状态。作为测量的美国期货活跃度上至32周以来的最高值,自5月29日截至的那一周为111.9点,第二周增长到113.5点。经济周期研究所说。它的年增长率升至46周以来的最高点,从一周前的-9.3%增长到-7.1%。该数据重申了经济周期研究所的观点,美国预期将迅速恢复,今年的年增长率将在今年夏天恢复。”


      埃及向美国市场出口服装忽视经济衰退的影响,这主要是由于受益于埃及免税方案,并且于最近扩大到上埃及。,埃及作为低成本的国家,由于QIZs,它成为美国牛仔短裤市场的领先供应商。

 

      由于过去几周印度聚酯声场的原材料成本下降,与此同时,短纤价格也跟着下降。长丝价格结合预取向丝的价格将下调。我们的印度通讯员报导,由于下游织造需求强劲,变形纱价格却有所增加。

 

      过去7天聚酯价格大幅下降,反映了远东地区一系列消极因素,包括需求下降和原材料成本缩减。聚酯消费可能不过是棉花和涤纶短纤的差异较大的价格刺激。


      周一聚酯链价格明显下跌,主要是我国的聚酯纤维的需求下降。对二甲苯和PTA的市场需求能力也令人沮丧,而乙二醇开始滑动。剧上升的原油价格对聚酯链依旧影响不大。

 
      纽约棉花期货价格上周价格下跌,主要是美元升值,商品市场不景气。国际市场现货需求也显疲软,同时还亚洲棉纱纱线贸易疲软。此外根据ICAC预测,下个年度棉花价格可能会大幅下降。  
 

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