印度棉花协会将2018-2019年棉花产量预期下调至34万包

CAI lowers 2018-19 cotton crop estimate to 340 lakh bales
TheCottonAssociation of India (CAI) has estimated cotton crop for 2018-19 season beginning October 1, 2018, at 340.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which is lower by 3 lakh bales than its previous estimate of 343.25 lakh bales made during last month. The CAI has reduced crop estimate for Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana compared to its previous estimate.
The CAI has increased the crop estimate for Haryana by 1 lakh bales, while projection for upper Rajasthan, lower Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh has been increased by 50,000 bales each compared to its previous estimate.
However, it has reduced the crop estimated for Gujarat by 3 lakh bales, Maharashtra by 1 lakh bales and Telangana by 1.50 lakh bales compared to the previous estimate due to unfavourable weather conditions.
The CAI has projected total cotton supply during the months of October and November 2018 at 95 lakh bales which consists of the arrival of 70 lakh bales up to November 30, 2018, imports of 2 lakh bales up to November 30, 2018 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season as on October 1, 2018 which the Committee has estimated at 23 lakh bales.
Further, the Committee has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October and November 2018 at54 lakh bales, while the export shipment of cotton up to 30thNovember 2018 has been estimated at 10 lakh bales.
The stock at the end of November 2018 is estimated at 31 lakh bales including 27 lakh bales withtextilemills and the remaining 4 lakh bales are estimated to be held by Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc.).
译文如下：
印度棉花协会将2018-2019年棉花产量预期下调至34万包
印度棉花协会(CAI)估计，从2018年10月1日开始的2018-2019年度棉花产量为340.25万包，每包170公斤，比上个月估计的343.25万包低了3万包。CAI已经将古吉拉特邦、马哈拉施特拉邦和特伦甘纳邦的作物估计值与之前的估计值进行了比较。
CAI将哈里亚纳邦的作物估计值提高了10万包，而对上拉贾斯坦邦、下拉贾斯坦邦和安得拉邦的估计值则分别提高了5万包。
然而，由于气候条件不佳，古吉拉特邦、马哈拉施特拉邦和特伦加纳邦的作物产量较先前估计减少了3万包，马哈拉施特拉邦减少了1万包，特伦加纳邦减少了1.5万包。
CAI曾预计2018年10月和11月棉花供应总量为950万包，包含了2018年11月30日已经到达的700万包，进口的200万包，以及2018年10月1日开始的存货季该委员会预估的230万包。
此外，该委员会估计，2018年10月和11月的棉花消费量为540万包，而截至2018年11月30日的棉花出口出货量估计为100万包。
2018年11月底库存预计为310万包，其中纺织厂270万包，剩余40万包由印度棉花公司(CCI)及其他(跨国公司、贸易商、轧棉商等)持有。