ICAC：供应增加，棉花价格或将下跌

Increased supply may bring down cotton prices: ICAC

World cotton production in 2016-17 is projected to rise by 8 per cent to 22.8 million tons, which may put pressure on cotton prices in the latter half of the ongoing 2016-17 season. World ending stocks may fall by 7 per cent to 18 million tons in 2016-17, though stocks outside of China are expected to grow by 6 per cent to 8.7 million tons.

The current season started with a large shrinkage in stocks, particularly from countries in the Southern Hemisphere, which saw ending stocks in 2015-16 fall by 21 per cent to 1.6 million tons, the lowest since 2009-10. The shortage in supply has carried through the first few months of the 2016-17 season, as the bulk of the crop was still being harvested, keeping prices firm, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) Secretariat said in its latest forecast for the season.

The Secretariat forecasts that the season-average Cotlook A Index in 2016-17 will range between 66 and 83 cts/lb, with a midpoint of 74 cts/lb, which would be 4 cts/lb higher than last season.

With the exception of China, ICAC projects higher cotton production in the top five producing countries. India’s cotton production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent to just under 6 million tons, making it the world’s largest producer. Despite declining by 4 per cent to 4.6 million tons, China would be the second largest producer in 2016-17. Production in the US could rise by 28 per cent to 3.6 million tons while production in Pakistan recovers by 20 per cent to 1.8 million tons as efforts to prevent the re-emergence of pink bollworm have been effective.

译文如下：

ICAC：供应增加，棉花价格或将下跌

2016/17年度，全球棉花产量预计将上涨8%至2280万吨，将给该年度下半年的棉花价格带来压力。2016/17年度，全球棉花期末库存预计将下降7%至1800万吨，而中国以外地区的库存预计将增长6%至870万吨。

据国际棉花咨询委员会秘书处公布的最新预估获悉，本年度初，全球棉花库存大幅下降，尤其是南半球的库存下降21%至160万吨，为2009/10年度以来最低水平。2016/17年度前几个月，大部分新棉还未收获，棉花供应持续短缺，棉花价格保持坚挺。

ICAC预计，2016/17年度考特鲁克A指数为66-83美分/磅，中间价为74美分/磅，同比上涨4美分/磅。

除了中国以外，本年度全球前五大产棉国的棉花产量均有所增加。印度棉花产量预计增长4%，接近600万吨，成为世界上最大的棉花生产国。中国棉花产量减少4%至460万吨，成为全球第二大棉花生产国。美国棉花产量增长28%至360万吨，巴基斯坦棉花产量增长20%至180万吨，该国努力控制棉红铃虫害收效甚好。