美国：世界棉花库存有望上涨

US: World cotton stockpiles expected to rise
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) yesterday (12 January) raised its estimates for world cotton stocks at the end of the 2011/12 season, due to lower production and exports and purchases by the Chinese government.
The forecast echoes figures from the inter-governmental group the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), which earlier this month also said efforts to rebuild the Chinese national reserve are likely to lead to a recovery in world cotton stocks.
The USDA believes the 2011/12 season, which began on 1 August, is likely to end with world cotton stocks of 58.4m bales, up from earlier estimates of 57.67m.
In the US, the largest cotton exporter, "production is lowered 153,000 bales, as a reduction for upland cotton in Texas is partially offset by higher estimated extra long staple (ELS) cotton production," its monthly supply/demand report said.
"Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are reduced 300,000 bales to 11.0m due to lower US supplies and strong competition from foreign exports."
Globally, it sees production reduced mainly in India and the US. Consumption is estimated 1.0m bales lower for China, as the substantial accumulation of cotton in the national reserve is expected to support prices and constrain mill use. Consumption also is reduced for Thailand.
译文如下：
由于受中国政府棉花产量、出口和购买力下降影响，美国农业部12日提高了其对于2011/2012年度末世界棉花库存的预计。
该预计重复了政府间集团，国际棉花咨询委员会提出的数字，该组织早前称中国政府重建国家收储价的努力很有可能会带动国际棉花储备的恢复。
美国农业部相信，从8月1日开始的2011/12季度，世界棉花储备有可能会从之前的5767万包上涨到5840万包。
美国作为最大的棉花出口国，在其月度供求报告中称，长绒棉产量受到高估一定程度上弥补了德州陆地棉产量减少，但总的棉花产量下降了153,000万包。国内棉纺厂的用量没有变化。由于受到美国棉花供应短缺以及外国市场出口强劲竞争的影响，棉花出口下降300,000包至1100万包。
全球范围来讲，印度和美国产量减少。由于政府棉花收储价下的棉花储备预计能支撑棉价并且限制棉纺厂用量，中国棉花购买量下降1百万包。泰国的棉花购买量也有所下降。